My dissertation is a book-length project that addresses the puzzles of why tribes align with different warring actors and why some tribes form and switch alignments while others do not. Substantively, it investigates the variances and choices behind tribal alliances in Iraqi civil wars following the 2003 invasion and develops a broader theory of tribal alignments in multiparty civil wars. I argue that tribes form and switch alignments based on their perception of threats to their traditional tribal structure (internal dynamics) and clientelist relations (external dynamics). In other words, tribes choose the lesser of two evils—often either the state or insurgents—based on which actor is perceived as less likely to threaten their traditional organization and patronage networks. While existing literature offers theories about alliances of non-state actors, they fall short of explaining tribal behavior due to the distinct characteristics of tribes compared to armed groups or civilians. Tribes are crucial non-state local actors in conflict-ridden states, such as Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, or Afghanistan, and understanding their role in conflicts is essential. By analyzing the internal and external dynamics of tribes that shape their perceptions and positioning, I uncover the mechanisms of tribal alignments in conflicts.

To explore the complex (re)alignment of tribes, my study grounded in forty original semi-structured interviews with tribal leaders, tribespeople, and professionals, conducted during fieldwork in Iraq and Jordan from January to March 2023. This approach allows me to identify the relationship between threat perceptions of tribes and their alignment choices, leading to the development of a typology of alignments. After testing my theory with a most likely case, I conduct a comparative case study analysis of four tribes with different alignment patterns.

Theoretically, exploring internal and external dynamics of tribes and elucidating the causes and consequences of tribal positioning in civil wars advances our understanding of conflict dynamics. Moreover, differentiating tribes from other non-state actors and understanding their distinct roles in preventing or escalating violent conflicts, expands our perspective in theorizing conflict zone interactions. In terms of policy implications, understanding tribes and the causal mechanism of their non-fixed alignments is necessary to effectively preempt and respond to violence and extremism. To be able to eliminate the underlying reasons for tribes’ support of violent extremist and terror groups and so that preventing terror and extremist agents from operating in tribal areas, it is crucial to reveal tribes’ structures, perceptions, expectations, and decision-making mechanisms. Moreover, recognizing threats and opportunities of alignments with tribes in the armed conflict helps us to identify the role of tribes in the future conflicts. Furthermore, acknowledging the role tribes play in societies, in part by fueling and resolving conflicts, empowers bottom-up peacebuilding initiatives. Given the contagious effects of violent conflicts in fragile states with tribal societies, ultimately regional and international peace and security arrangements can be strengthened.

My dissertation research has been recognized and supported by a number of organizations, including the Craigie International Security Scholars Fellowship, APSA Centennial Center Research Grant, and ISA Dissertation Complete Fellowship, and GSU’s Provost’s Dissertation Fellowship and Study Abroad Scholarship Award.